{"id":1591,"date":"2020-03-30T12:30:18","date_gmt":"2020-03-30T03:30:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/?p=1591"},"modified":"2020-05-18T18:04:46","modified_gmt":"2020-05-18T09:04:46","slug":"what-corona-virus-could-mean-for-the-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/what-corona-virus-could-mean-for-the-global-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"\ucf54\ub85c\ub098 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uac00 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \uac00\uc838\uc62c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc62c\ud574 \ucd08, \uc2e0\uc885\ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4(COVID19 \ub610\ub294 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819)\uac00 \uc911\uad6d \uc804\uc5ed\uc744 \uac15\ud0c0\ud560 \ub54c \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \uc678\uba74\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \ud758\ub7ec COVID19\uac00 \uc720\ub7fd\uacfc \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud37c\uc838\ub098\uac00 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9 \uc120\uc5b8\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\ub974\uac8c \ub418\uc790 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubc14\ub2e5\uc744 \ud5a5\ud574 \uace4\ub450\ubc15\uc9c8 \uce58\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc790\uc0b0\uad70\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 COVID19 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uac00\uce58\ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \uc774\ub904\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c, \uc77c\uac01\uc5d0\uc120 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \ubd88\ud669\uc744 \uc810\uce58\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>BCG\uc5d0\ub294 \uc138\uacc4 \ube44\uc988\ub2c8\uc2a4 \ub9ac\ub354\ub4e4\uc758 \ubb38\uc758\uac00 \ube57\ubc1c\uce58\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\uac00 \uc9c4\uc815 \ubd88\ud669\uc758 \uc9d5\ud6c4\uc77c\uc9c0, \uac10\uc5fc\ubcd1\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ubd88\ud669\uc740 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc2ec\uac01\ud560\uc9c0, \uc131\uc7a5\uacfc \ud68c\ubcf5 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uc5b4\ub5a4\uc9c0, \uc704\uae30\uc0c1\ud669\uc758 \uc804\uac1c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uc744\uc9c0 \ub4f1 \uc790\ubb38\uc744 \uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc608\uce21\uacfc \uc9c0\uc218\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc9c8\ubb38\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub2f5\ud558\uae34 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4. \uac00\uc7a5 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0\uc870\ucc28 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ud558\uae30 \ud798\ub4e0 GDP\uc608\uce21\uc740 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uc758 \uada4\uc801 \ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ud1b5\uc81c \ub178\ub825\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc131, \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc640 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \uc54c \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc9c0\uae08\uc740 \ub354 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud558\ub2e4. \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbff\uc744\ub9cc\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud30c\uc545 \ub610\ub294 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ub2e8\uc77c\ud55c \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4. \ub300\uc2e0, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0\uad70 \uc804\uccb4\uc5d0 \uac78\uce5c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc9d5\ud6c4, \ubd88\ud669 \ubc0f \ud68c\ubcf5 \ud328\ud134\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1\uacfc \uadf8\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ucda9\uaca9\uc758 \uacfc\uac70\uc0ac\ub840\ub4e4\uc744 \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \uad00\ucc30\ud558\uc5ec \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ub098\uc544\uac00\uc57c \ud560 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud1b5\ucc30\ub825\uc744 \ub3c4\ucd9c\ud574\uc57c\ub9cc \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \ubc14<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae09\ub77d\uc740 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ubd88\ud669\uc758 \uae38\uc5d0 \uc811\uc5b4\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc548\uc804 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uae09\uc99d\ud558\uc5ec \ubbf8\uad6d \uc7a5\uae30\uad6d\ucc44\uc758 \uae30\uac04 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc740 \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4 116 \ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub85c \ucd5c\uc800\uc810\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\uac8c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44\ub77c\ub294 \uc548\uc804 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc9c0\ubd88\ud560 \uc758\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \uc798 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc, \uae30\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \ubd88\ud669 \ubaa8\ub378\ub4e4\uc740 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc880\ub354 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uba74 \ubc18\ub4dc\uc2dc \ubd88\ud669\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc548 \ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc54c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uccab\uc9f8, \uc704\ud5d8 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc608\ub85c \ub4e4\uc790\uba74 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4. \uc591\ud638\ud55c \ucabd\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\uba74, \uc2e0\uc6a9 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub294 \ub208\uc5d0 \ub74c \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud3ed\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc2e0\uc6a9 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc2dd\uac00\uce58\ud3c9\uac00(equity valuation)\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \uace0\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ud604\uc800\ud558\uac8c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\ub098 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uacfc\uac70\uc0ac\ub840\ub4e4\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub300\ud3b8\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\uba74, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\uc740 \uc9d5\ud6c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uac04\ud5d0\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\uc74c \ub2ec \ub0b4\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied next-month volatility)\uc740 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \uc704\uae30\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud558\uace0 \uc9c0\ub09c 30\ub144\uac04\uc758 \uc5b4\ub5a0\ud55c \uc8fc\uc694 \ub514\uc2a4\ub85c\ucf00\uc774\uc158(dislocation, \uc790\uae08\uc218\uae09 \ud63c\ub780\uc0c1\ud669)\uacfc\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub458\uc9f8, \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 (\ud2b9\ud788 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ubd88\ud669\uc774 \uc57c\uae30\ub420 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c) \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc778 \ubd88\ud669 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc778 \ubc18\uba74, \uacfc\uac70\uc0ac\ub840\ub4e4\uc744 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uba74 \uc57d\uc138\uc7a5\uacfc \ubd88\ud669\uc744 \ubb34\uc870\uac74 \uac19\uc774 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\uba74 \uc548 \ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc54c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud604\uc2e4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294, \uc57d\uc138\uc7a5\uacfc \ubd88\ud669\uc774 \ub3d9\uc2dc \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c \uacbd\uc6b0\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc57d\uc138\uc7a5 3\uac1c \uc911 2\uac1c \uc815\ub3c4 \ubc16\uc5d0 \ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub9d0\ud574, \uc57d\uc138\uc7a5 \uc138 \uac1c \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub294 \ubd88\ud669\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c 100\ub144 \uac04 \uc57d\uc138\uc7a5\uc774 \ubd88\ud669\uacfc \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc77c\uc5b4\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc0ac\ub840\ub294 7\uac74\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\uc81c \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uc640\ud574 \uc7a0\uc7ac\ub825\uc758 \uc6d0\uc778\uc744 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\uc5d0\uc11c \ucc3e\ub294 \uac83\uc5d0\ub294 \uc758\uc2ec\uc758 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc5c6\uc73c\uba70 \uadf8\ub7ec\ud55c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \uc2e4\uc7ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098, \uc790\uc0b0 \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158 \uac04\uc758 \ucc28\uc774\ub4e4\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc774 \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ubd80\uac01\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uc0ac\ub840\ub4e4\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub300\ub7c9\ub9e4\uac01(sell-off)\uacfc \uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uc81c \uac04\uc5d0 \uc120\uc744 \uae0b\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uacbd\uacc4\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\ub85c \ucd08\ub798\ub41c \ubd88\ud669\uc740 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc591\uc0c1\uc77c\uae4c?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\ubd88\ud669 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \uc2e4\uc7ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \ub454\ud654\ub418\uace0 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uacbd\uae30\ud33d\ucc3d\uc774 \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \ud761\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc774 \uc57d\ud654\ub428\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc8fc\uc694 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ucde8\uc57d\uc131\uc774 \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \uc0ac\uc2e4, \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc678\ubd80\uc801 \ucda9\uaca9\uc740 \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \ubd88\ud669 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubd88\ud669\uc740 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\uc74c \uc911 3\uac00\uc9c0 \ubd84\ub958 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 <em>\uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uc81c \ubd88\ud669.<\/em> \uc804\ud615\uc801\uc73c\ub85c, \uc774\ub294 \uacbd\uae30\ud33d\ucc3d\uc744 \ubb34\ub108\ub728\ub9ac\ub294 \uc790\ubcf8\uc801\uc9c0\ucd9c \uc99d\uac00 (CapEx boom) \uc2f8\uc774\ud074\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098, \uc804\uc7c1, \uc7ac\ub09c, \uae30\ud0c0 \uc640\ud574\uc801 \uc0c1\ud669 \ub4f1 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \uc218\uc694 \ubc0f \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9\ub3c4 \uc2e4\ubb3c \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ucd95\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubc14\ub85c \uc774 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\uac00 \uc219\uc8fc\ub97c \uac10\uc5fc\uc2dc\ud0ac \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc740 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2022 \uc815\ucc45\ud615 \ubd88\ud669<\/em>. \uc911\uc559 \uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc911\ub9bd\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub108\ubb34 \ub192\uac8c \ub450\uba74 \uae08\uc735 \uc0c1\ud669\uacfc \uc2e0\uc6a9 \uc911\uac1c\ub294 \uc704\ucd95\ub418\uace0 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uba74\uc11c \uacbd\uae30\ud33d\ucc3d\uc740 \uc911\ub2e8\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubcf4\ud1b5 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc678 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \ucd5c\uc800\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc5c8\uac70\ub098 \uc2ec\uc9c0\uc5b4\ub294 \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4\uc778 \ubc18\uba74, \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c\ub294 \ub180\ub78d\uac8c\ub3c4 50 \ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ucef7\uc744 \uc2e4\ud604\ud588\ub2e4. \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc801 \ub300\uc751 \uc678\uc5d0, G7 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uc7ac\ubb34 \uc7a5\uad00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc744 \uc57d\uc18d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2022 \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30.<\/em> \uc7ac\uc815\uc801 \ubd88\uade0\ud615\uc740 \ucc9c\ucc9c\ud788, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc7a5\uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \uc313\uc774\ub2e4\uac00 \uae09\uc18d\ud558\uac8c \uc804\uac1c\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uae08\uc735 \uc911\uac1c, \uadf8 \ub2e4\uc74c\uc5d0\ub294 \uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uc640\ud574\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc77c\ubd80 \ub208\uc5d0 \ub744\ub294 \ucc28\uc774\uc810\ub4e4\uc774 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uac00\uc7a5 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \ub531 \uaf2c\uc9d1\uc5b4 \ub9d0\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4. \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ub17c\ud3c9\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ubc1c\ud589\uacfc \ub0ae\uc740 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(tight spread)\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc9c0\ub4ef \uae30\uc5c5 \uc2e0\uc6a9\uc758 \uac70\ud488\uc744 \uc9c0\uc801\ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c \ubc88 \uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ubd88\ud669\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ubb34\ub9ac\ub77c\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc65c\ub0d0\uba74 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc2e0\uc6a9\uc740 \uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ud638\ud669\uc5d0 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec\uc744 \ud574\uc8fc\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\uc744 \ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c(\uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784\uc740 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub300\ucd9c\uc5d0 \uadf8\ub7ec\ud55c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud588\uc5c8\ub2e4) \uc740\ud589 \uc7ac\ubb34\uc81c\ud45c \uc0c1 \ubd80\ucc44\ub3c4 \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \ub450 \uc694\uc18c \ubaa8\ub450 \uc2e0\uc6a9\uc758 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801\uc778 \ud3ed\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uccb4\uacc4\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\uae30\ub294 \ud558\ub098, \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uac04\uacfc\ud560 \uc218\ub294 \uc5c6\ub2e4. \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\uac00 \uc7ac\uc815\uc801 \ubd88\uade0\ud615\uc5d0 \uae30\uc5ec\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uae30\ub294 \uc5b4\ub835\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud2b9\ud788 \uc911\uc18c\uae30\uc5c5(SME)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud604\uae08 \ud750\ub984 \uc555\ubc15\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc555\ubc15\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubd84\ub958\uccb4\uacc4\uc640 \uacfc\uac70\uc0ac\ub840\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2dc \ud55c\ubc88 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uba74 \u2018\uc2e4\ubb3c \uacbd\uc81c\u2019 \ubd84\ub958\uc5d0\uc11c \uba87 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc88b\uc740 \uc18c\uc2dd\uc744 \ubc1c\uacac\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4. \ud2b9\uc774\ud558\uac8c\ub3c4 \uc2e4\ubb3c \uacbd\uc81c \ubd88\ud669\uc740 \uc815\ucc45\ud615 \ubd88\ud669\uc774\ub098 \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30\ub85c \ucd08\ub798\ub41c \ubd88\ud669\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \uc57d\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc2e4\ubb3c \uacbd\uc81c \ubd88\ud669\uc740 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc2ec\uac01\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc778 \uc218\uc694(\ub610\ub294 \uacf5\uae09) \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\uc640\ub294 \ubc18\ub300\ub85c, \uc815\ucc45\ud615 \ubd88\ud669\uc740 \uc815\ucc45 \uc624\ub958\uc758 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2e4\ub974\uae30\ub294 \ud558\ub098 \uc2ec\uac01\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub300\uacf5\ud669\uc740 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc0c1 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc815\ucc45\uc801 \uc624\ub958\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ucd08\ub798\ub41c \uac83\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30\uac00 \uac00\uc7a5 \uce58\uba85\uc801\uc778 \uc774\uc720\ub294 \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \uad6c\uc870\uc801\uc778 \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uac8c \ub418\uace0 \uc774\ub97c \uc2dc\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub370\uc5d0\ub294 \uc624\ub79c \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uac78\ub9ac\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ud68c\ubcf5 \ubc29\uc548\uc740 \ubb34\uc5c7\uc778\uac00?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\uac01\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ubd88\ud669\uc744 \ud53c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\uc640\ub294 \ubcc4\uac1c\ub85c, \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc131\uc7a5\uc758 \uae38\ub85c \uc9c4\uc785\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc9c0\uc5f0 \ub610\ub294 \ud3ec\uae30\ub418\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4, \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uc9c4\uc815\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e8\uae30\uac04\uc758 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc774 \ub420\uc9c0 \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420\uc9c0, \ub610\ub294 \ubb34\uc5c7\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub3c4 \uad6c\uc870\uc801\uc778 \uc190\uc0c1\uc774 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80 \ub4f1\uc758 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc694\uc778\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c\uc740 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 V-U-L\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uba85\uba85\ud55c \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0\uc758 \uac1c\uad04\uc801\uc778 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2022 V\ud615:<\/em> \uc774 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc758 \uac10\uc18c\uac00 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc \uacb0\uad6d\uc5d0\ub294 \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\ub97c \ud68c\ubcf5\ud558\ub294 \u201c\uc804\ud615\uc801\uc778\u201d \uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uc81c \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5f0\uac04 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\ub85c \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ud761\uc218\ub420 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. V\ud615 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uc624\ub298\ub0a0\uc758 \ube44\uad00\uc801 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub099\uad00\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uae30\ub294 \ud558\ub098 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub77c\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2022 U\ud615:<\/em> \uc774 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 V\ud615\uc758 \ubbf8\uc6b4 \ud615\uc81c\ub77c\uace0 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucda9\uaca9\uc740 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uba70 \ucd5c\ucd08\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\uac00 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub418\uae30\ub294 \ud558\ub098 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc758 \uc601\uad6c\uc801\uc778 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc778\uac00? \ubb3c\ub860\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \uae30\ubcf8 \ucf00\uc774\uc2a4\ub85c \uc0bc\uc73c\ub824\uba74 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc801\uc778 \uc190\uc2e4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc99d\uac70\uac00 \ub354 \uc788\uc5b4\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2022 L\ud615:<\/em> \uc774 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 V\ud615\uacfc U\ud615\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \ubc09\uace0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uc30d\ud55c \uce5c\ucc99\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uac00 \uc2e4\ud604\ub418\ub824\uba74, \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\uac00 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5, \uc790\ubcf8\ud615\uc131, \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uae30\ub2a5\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uacf5\uae09\uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb34\uc5b8\uac00\ub97c \ud30c\uad34\ud558\ub294 \ub4f1\uc758 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubbff\uc5b4\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ube44\uad00\uc801\uc778 \uac00\uc815\uc744 \ud55c\ub2e4 \ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc0c1\uc0c1\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4. \uc5b4\ub290 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \ub2e4\ub2e4\ub974\uba74 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774 \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1\uc758 \ubc18\ub300 \ucabd\uc5d0 \uc788\uac8c \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ucda9\uaca9: \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-large wp-image-1608\" src=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_1-400x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"1024\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_1-400x1024.jpg 400w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_1-117x300.jpg 117w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_1-600x1536.jpg 600w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_1-696x1783.jpg 696w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_1-164x420.jpg 164w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_1.jpg 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><br \/>\n\ucd9c\ucc98: BCG \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \ubd84\uc11d \uc13c\ud130<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\ub2e4\uc2dc \ub9d0\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uacfc\uac70\uc0ac\ub840\ub4e4\uc744 \ub3cc\uc544\ubd04\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\uc758 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc758 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \uacbd\ud5d8\uc8fc\uc758\ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ud30c\uc545\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uadf8\ub9cc\ud55c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc0ac\uc2e4, \uc0ac\uc2a4, 1968\ub144 \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \ub3c5\uac10, 1958\ub144 \ud64d\ucf69 \ub3c5\uac10, 1918\ub144 \uc2a4\ud398\uc778 \ub3c5\uac10 \ub4f1\uc758 \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ucda9\uaca9 \uacbd\ud5d8\uc740 \ubaa8\ub450 V\ud615\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1 \ub300\uc720\ud589\uc740 \ubaa8\ub450 V\ud615\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-large wp-image-1613\" src=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_2-294x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"294\" height=\"1024\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_2-294x1024.jpg 294w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_2-86x300.jpg 86w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_2-441x1536.jpg 441w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_2-588x2048.jpg 588w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_2-696x2424.jpg 696w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_2-121x420.jpg 121w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/What-Coronavirus-Could-Mean-for-the-Global-Economy-Mar-2020_2.jpg 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 294px) 100vw, 294px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\ucd9c\ucc98: \ubbf8\uad6d\ud1b5\uacc4\uccad, BEA, CDC, \ud64d\ucf69\ud1b5\uacc4\ucc98, BCG \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \ubd84\uc11d \uc13c\ud130<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>\ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc5ec\ud30c\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc778\uac00?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub97c \ud30c\uc545\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ubcf4\uac74 \uc704\uae30\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uac10\uc5fc\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uc804\ud30c \uba54\ucee4\ub2c8\uc998\uc744 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcfc \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubd88\ud669\uc758 \ubd84\ub958\uccb4\uacc4\uac00 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc5b4\ub514\ub97c \uacf5\uaca9\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740\uc9c0 \uc54c\ub824\uc900\ub2e4\uba74, \uc804\ud30c \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc219\uc8fc\ub97c \uc7a5\uc545\ud558\ub294\uc9c0 \uc54c\ub824\uc900\ub2e4. \uc774\uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc774\uc720\ub294 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc601\ud5a5\uacfc \uce58\ub8cc\ubc95\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c\uc740 \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0\uc758 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc804\ud30c \uacbd\ub85c\uc774\ub2e4:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 <em>\uc2e0\ub8b0(\uc790\uc0b0 \ud6a8\uacfc, wealth effect)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac04\uc811\uc801 \ud0c0\uaca9:<\/em> \uc2e4\ubb3c \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc678\ubd80 \ucda9\uaca9\uc758 \uc804\ud615\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ud30c\ub294 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5(\uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ub354 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uae08\uc735 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ubb38\uc81c\uc758 \uc77c\ubd80\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\uc5d0 \uc811\uc5b4\ub4e4\uace0 \uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uc704\ucd95\ub418\uba74 \uac00\uacc4 \uc800\ucd95\ub960\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc18c\ube44\ub294 \ubc18\ub4dc\uc2dc \uac10\uc18c\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uac01 \uac00\uc815\uc758 \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc790\uc0b0 \ub178\ucd9c\ub3c4\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uac19\uc740 \uc120\uc9c4\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \uac15\ub825\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c, \uac00\ud30c\ub974\uace0(\uc870\uc815\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc57d\uc138\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4) \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\uac00 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022<em> \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c1\uc811\uc801 \ud0c0\uaca9:<\/em> \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc131\uacfc\uc640 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc2e0\ub8b0\uc9c0\uc218 \uac04\uc5d0\ub294 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc0c1\ud638\uad00\ub828\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc7a5\uae30 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uc77c \ub54c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud558\ub77d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc54c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\ub294 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc9c1\uc811\uc801 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \uc8fc\uc5b4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc9d1 \ubc16\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc784\uc758\uc801\uc778 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc744 \uacbd\uacc4\ud558\uba70 \ube44\uad00\uc801\uc778 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ud558\uac8c \ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 <em>\uacf5\uae09\uce21\uba74\uc758 \ucda9\uaca9:<\/em> \uc704\uc758 \ub450 \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \uc218\uc694 \uce21\uba74\uc758 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc \uacf5\uae09 \uc640\ud574\ub97c \ud1b5\ud55c \uc804\ud30c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uacf5\uc7a5\uc774 \ubb38\uc744 \ub2eb\uace0 \uacf5\uae09\uc0ac\uc2ac\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ubd80\ud488\uc744 \uc4f8 \uc218 \uc5c6\uac8c \ub428\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c, \uac2d\uc740 \ubb38\uc81c\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uace0 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc740 \uc911\ub2e8\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ubb34\uae09\ud734\uc9c1 \ubc0f \ud574\uace0\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \uac01\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5c4\uccad\ub09c \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub098 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uc608\ub85c \ub4e0\ub2e4\uba74, \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc704\uae30 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud788 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\ub418\uc5b4\uc57c \ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uacf5\uae09 \uce21\uba74\uc758 \ucda9\uaca9\uc740 \uc218\uc694 \uce21\uba74\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ubd80\ucc28\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubd88\ud669\uc740 \uc8fc\ub85c \uacbd\uae30\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uac83\uc774\uc9c0 \uad6c\uc870\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uac74\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uadf8 \uacbd\uacc4\ub294 \ubaa8\ud638\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc790\uba74, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c (\ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub098\uc05c) \uacbd\uae30\uc131 \uc0ac\uac74\uc774\uc5c8\uc73c\ub098 \uad6c\uc870\uc801\uc778 \uacfc\uc789\ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uacbd\uae30\ub294 \ubc18\ub4f1\ud588\uc73c\ub098 \uac00\uacc4\uc758 \ub514\ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9d5(deleveraging, \ubd80\ucc44\ucd95\uc18c)\uc740 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801 \ud604\uc0c1\uc774\ub2e4. \uac00\uacc4\uc758 \ub300\ucd9c \uc758\ud5a5(\ubc0f \ub2a5\ub825)\uc740 \uad6c\uc870\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc190\uc0c1\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uad6c\uc870\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcfc \ub54c \ubd80\uc218\uc801\uc778 \uc190\uc2e4\uc740 \uc815\ucc45\uc785\uc548\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \uc624\ub298 \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc2f8\uc774\ud074\uc744 \ucd09\uc9c4\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud6e8\uc52c \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \ub290\ub080\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\ub294 \uace0\uc720\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ub808\uac70\uc2dc\ub97c \ucc3d\ucd9c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uae4c? \uacfc\uac70\uc0ac\ub840\ub4e4\uc744 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uba74 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc704\uae30\uc0c1\ud669 \ud6c4 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ud654\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 <em>\ubbf8\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ub808\uac70\uc2dc(Microeconomic legacy):<\/em> \uc804\uc5fc\ubcd1\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc704\uae30\uc0c1\ud669\ub4e4\uc740 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uae30\uc220\uacfc \ube44\uc988\ub2c8\uc2a4 \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \ucc44\ud0dd\uc744 \ucd09\uc9c4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 2003\ub144\uc758 \uc0ac\uc2a4\ub294 \uc885\uc885 \uc911\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc628\ub77c\uc778 \uc1fc\ud551 \ucc44\ud0dd\uc744 \ucd09\uc9c4\ud558\uace0 \uc54c\ub9ac\ubc14\ubc14\uc758 \ubd80\uc0c1\uc744 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\uc2dc\ucf30\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud734\uad50\ub839\uc774 \ub0b4\ub824\uc84c\uace0 \ubbf8\uad6d \ubc0f \ub2e4\ub978 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uadf8\ub7f4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c e-\ub7ec\ub2dd\uacfc e-\uad50\uc721\uc740 \ub3cc\ud30c\uad6c\ub97c \ucc3e\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc778\uac00? \ub610\ud55c, \uc6b0\ud55c\uc758 \uc2a4\ub9c8\ud2b8\ud3f0 \ucd94\uc801\uc7a5\uce58\ub97c \ud1b5\ud55c \ub514\uc9c0\ud138 \uc704\uae30 \ud1b5\uc81c \ub178\ub825\uc740 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uacf5\uc911\ubcf4\uac74 \ub3c4\uad6c\ub97c \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc5c8\ub294\uac00?<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2022 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ub808\uac70\uc2dc(Macroeconomic legacy)<\/em>: \uc774\ubbf8 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc880\ub354 \ubd84\uc0b0\ud654\ub41c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uac00\uce58 \uc0ac\uc2ac\ub85c\uc758 \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uae30\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 2016\ub144 \uc774\uc804\uc758 \uac00\uce58 \uc0ac\uc2ac \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd84\uc0b0\ud654\ub41c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub04c\uc5c8\ub358 \uc815\uce58\uc801, \uc81c\ub3c4\uc801 \uc694\uc778\uc5d0 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc0dd\ubb3c\ud559\uc801 \uce21\uba74\uc774 \ucd94\uac00\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2022 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ub808\uac70\uc2dc(Political legacy)<\/em>: \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcfc \ub54c \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uc5ec\ud30c\ub3c4 \ubc30\uc81c\ub418\uc5b4\uc11c\ub294 \uc548 \ub41c\ub2e4. \ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc815\uce58 \uccb4\uc81c\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \uc778\uad6c \ubcf4\ud638 \uc5ed\ub7c9\uc774 \uc2dc\ud5d8\ub300\uc5d0 \uc62c\ub824\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uc57d\ud55c \uc81c\ub3c4\ub294 \ub178\ucd9c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uace0 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ucd09\ubc1c\ub420 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \uae30\uac04\uacfc \uc2ec\uac01\uc131\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\uc120\uc758 \uc591\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uac01\uc801\uc778 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc704\uae30\ub294 \ud611\ub825 \uc99d\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc694\uad6c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub418\uac70\ub098 \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc138\ub825\uc758 \uc591\uadf9 \uc911\uc2ec \uc0ac\uc774\ub97c \ub354 \ubc8c\ub824\ub193\uc744 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc640 \uad00\ub828\ud558\uc5ec \ub9ac\ub354\ub294 \ubb34\uc5c7\uc744 \ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294\uac00?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uacfc \uc774\uc804\uc758 \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5bb\uc740 \ud1b5\ucc30\ub825\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \uc6b4\uc601\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 \uc608\uce21\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc548 \ub41c\ub2e4. \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud070 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub4e4\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc2e4\ud604\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uace0 \uae30\uc5c5\uc740 \uc774\ub4e4\uc744 \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uc544\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae09\ub77d\uc774 \uc788\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \ube44\uc988\ub2c8\uc2a4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ud750\ub824\uc11c\ub294 \uc548\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\uc640 \uad00\ub828\ub41c \uc9d5\ud6c4\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\uace0 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc9c1\uad00\uc801 \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ubbff\uc73c\uba70 \uadf8\ub7ec\ud55c \ud1b5\ucc30\ub825\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub370\uc5d0 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \ud30c\uc545\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ubb3c\ub860 \uadf8 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 \uac19\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc774\uba70 \uacb0\ub860\uc740 \uc0b0\uc5c5\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ub2e4\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 \ucd5c\uc0c1\uc758 \uada4\uc801\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \uacc4\ud68d\ud558\uace0 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uada4\uc801\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. V\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc740 \uac1c\ub150 \ubc0f \uacbd\ud5d8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc774\ub098 \uacb0\ucf54 \uadf8\ub7ec\ud55c \uc2dd\uacac \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc548\uc77c\ud574\uc838\uc11c\ub294 \uc548 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 \uc704\uae30 \uc0c1\ud669 \uc774\ud6c4\ub97c \uc804\ub9dd\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 19\ub294 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ubbf8\uc2dc \ub610\ub294 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ub808\uac70\uc2dc\ub97c \ub0a8\uae38 \uac83\uc778\uac00? \uc5b4\ub5a0\ud55c \uae30\ud68c \ub610\ub294 \ub3c4\uc804\uacfc\uc81c\uac00 \ubd80\uc0c1\ud560 \uac83\uc778\uac00?<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 \uc704\uae30 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uac83\uc778\uc9c0 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uae30\uc220, \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud504\ub85c\uc138\uc2a4 \ub4f1\uc744 \uc880\ub354 \uc2e0\uc18d\ud558\uac8c \ucc44\ud0dd\ud558\ub294 \ub370\uc5d0 \ub3d9\ucc38\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uac00? \uae30\uc5c5, \uace0\uac1d, \uc0ac\ud68c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uacb0\uad6d\uc5d0\ub294 \uc704\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ubc1c\uacac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uac00?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2020\/03\/what-coronavirus-could-mean-for-the-global-economy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\uc6d0\ubb38(\uc601\uc5b4) \ubcf4\ub7ec\uac00\uae30<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc62c\ud574 \ucd08, \uc2e0\uc885\ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc14\uc774\ub7ec\uc2a4(COVID19 \ub610\ub294 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819)\uac00 \uc911\uad6d \uc804\uc5ed\uc744 \uac15\ud0c0\ud560 \ub54c \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \uc678\uba74\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \ud758\ub7ec COVID19\uac00 \uc720\ub7fd\uacfc \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud37c\uc838\ub098\uac00 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9 \uc120\uc5b8\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\ub974\uac8c \ub418\uc790 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubc14\ub2e5\uc744 \ud5a5\ud574 \uace4\ub450\ubc15\uc9c8 \uce58\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc790\uc0b0\uad70\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 COVID19 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uac00\uce58\ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \uc774\ub904\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c, \uc77c\uac01\uc5d0\uc120 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c \ubd88\ud669\uc744 \uc810\uce58\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1796,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1591","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-covid19"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1591"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1591\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1796"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}