{"id":2479,"date":"2020-07-01T10:38:55","date_gmt":"2020-07-01T01:38:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/?p=2479"},"modified":"2021-11-18T17:49:29","modified_gmt":"2021-11-18T08:49:29","slug":"have-we-passed-peak-demand-for-fossil-fuels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/have-we-passed-peak-demand-for-fossil-fuels\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc5c8\ub294\uac00?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \ub300\uc720\ud589\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc704\uc138\ub97c \ub5a8\uce58\uba74\uc11c \uc804\uc138\uacc4 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc740 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ub2e8\uae30\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc5b5\uc81c\ucc45\uc744 \ucde8\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc804\uc138\uacc4\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uc758 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \uc9c0\ub0ac\uc744 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac \uc704\uae30\uc758 \uadf8\ub298\uc5d0 \uac00\ub824\uc838 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub354 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uacaa\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ud63c\ub780\uc758 \ud55c \ud574<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \ub300\uc720\ud589\uc740 \uc138\uacc4\uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uac15\ud0c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uad6d\uc81c \ub178\ub3d9\uae30\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ub2e8 \uba87 \uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\uaddc\ubaa8\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc870 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc99d\ubc1c\ud588\uc73c\uba70 3\uc5b5 \uac1c \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \uc815\uaddc\uc9c1 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0ac\ub77c\uc84c\ub2e4. \uad6d\uc81c \ud1b5\ud654 \uae30\uae08\uc740 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc62c\ud574 \uc138\uacc4 GDP\uac00 3 ~ 6% \ud558\ub77d\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uce21\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 2008\ub144 ~ 2009\ub144 \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30 \ub54c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d 2 ~ 4\ubc30 \ud070 \uac10\uc18c\ud3ed\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubd80\ubb38 \ubcc4\ub85c \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc0c1\uc774\ud55c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uacbd\ud5d8\ud588\ub2e4(\ub3c4\ud45c 1 \ucc38\uc870).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\n\uc11d\uc720 \uc218\uc694\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \ud070 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\uc558\ub2e4. 3\uc6d4\uacfc 4\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc804\uc138\uacc4 \ud56d\uacf5\uc5ec\ud589 \uac10\uc18c, \uc138\uacc4\ubb34\uc5ed \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc81c\ud55c\uc870\uce58\ub85c \ub9ce\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub3d9\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub428\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc11d\uc720 \uc218\uc694\uac00 20% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70 \uc774\ub294 \ud558\ub8e8 2\ucc9c\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud558\ub294 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uacfc\uc789\uacf5\uae09\uc774 OPEC\uacfc \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\uc758 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9 \ud560\ub2f9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ub354 \uc2ec\uac01\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uae09\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d \ub0b4 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4\uac00 \ub418\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc11d\ud0c4 \uc218\uc694\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uacbd\ud5d8\ud588\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uba74\uc11c \ub9ce\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c \uc804\ub825\uc18c\ube44\uac00 \uac10\uc18c\ud568\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc11d\ud0c4\ud654\ub825\ubc1c\uc804\uc18c\uc758 \uac00\ub3d9\uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \ub2e8\ucd95\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc804\ub825\ub3c4\ub9e4\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc804\ub825\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub0b4 \ub2e4\uc218 \ubc1c\uc804\uc0ac\uc5c5\uc790 \ub9c8\uc9c4\uc774 \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4 \uc218\uc694\ub3c4 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uae34 \ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c GDP\uc758 \uc804\ubc18\uc801 \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \uc5f0\uacc4\ub41c \uac83\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc5ed\ub9c8\ub2e4 \uc815\ub3c4\uc758 \ucc28\uc774\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \uc804\ub825 \ubc0f \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b9\ud788 \uc218\uc694 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uad00\ucc30\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 2019\ub144 ~ 2020\ub144 \uaca8\uc6b8\uc774 \uc628\ud654\ud588\ub358 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud588\uc744 \ub54c \uac74\ubb3c \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uc18c\ube44\ub294 \uc880 \ub354 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc640 \ub2ec\ub9ac \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc740 \uacc4\uc18d \uc99d\uac00 \uc911\uc774\ub2e4. \ud48d\ub825 \ubc0f \ud0dc\uc591\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc758 \ud655\ub300 \ud3ed\uc740 \uc704\uae30 \uc774\uc804\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uce58\uc5d0\ub294 \ubabb \ubbf8\uce58\uc9c0\ub9cc \uad6d\uc81c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uae30\uad6c\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \uc804\uc138\uacc4 \ud48d\ub825 \ubc0f \ud0dc\uc591\uad11 \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \uac01\uac01 10% \ubc0f 15% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub294 \ud55c\uacc4 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \uac70\uc758 0\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud558\ub294 \uc758\ubb34 \ubc1c\uc804\uc6d0\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\uc740 \uae30\uc874 \ubc1c\uc804\uc0ac\uc5c5\uc790\ub97c \ub354\uc6b1 \uc555\ubc15\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud328\ud134\uc740 \ubbf8\ub798 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc5ed\ud559\uc5d0 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce5c\ub2e4. \uba87 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uac8c \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\ud68c\ubcf5\uc740 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ud655\ub300\ud558\uac8c \ub418\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc138\uacc4\uacbd\uc81c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc9d1\uc57d\ub3c4\uc758 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc778 \uac10\uc18c\ub294 \uacc4\uc18d\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4(\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc778 \ud6a8\uc728\uc131 \uac1c\uc120\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574). \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc6d0\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc131\uc7a5\uacfc \uc6b4\uc1a1\ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uc804\uae30\ud654 \ucd94\uc138\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uc758 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \uc138\uacc4 GDP\ud68c\ubcf5\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub4a4\uccd0\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc694\uc778\uc758 \uc9c4\ud589\uc18d\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc218\uc694 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc758 \uc815\ub3c4\uac00 \uacb0\uc815\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uc758 \uc815\uc810\uc740 \uc9c0\ub098\uac04 \uac83\uc77c\uae4c?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\uc804\uc138\uacc4 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \ubd09\uc1c4\uc870\uce58\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\uba74\uc11c \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \ub300\uc720\ud589\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ud53c\ud574\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc624\ub798 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420\uc9c0\ub294 \uc544\uc9c1 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud558\ub2e4. IMF\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8(baseline) \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 2021\ub144 \uc138\uacc4 GDP\uac00 2019\ub144 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4\uc11c\ub294 V\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud68c\ubcf5\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc624\ub79c \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uac78\ub9ac\ub294 U\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc744 \uacbd\uace0\ud558\ub294 \ubaa9\uc18c\ub9ac\uac00 \uafb8\uc900\ud788 \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud6c4\uc790\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ubd80\uc815\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. IMF\uc758 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758(worst-case) \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc778 L\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5 \ud558\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud53c\ud574\uac00 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub354 \ud074 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4(\ub3c4\ud45c 2 \ucc38\uc870).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\uadf8 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 2020\ub144 4\uc6d4 IMF\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubbf8\uad6d, \uc720\ub7fd, \uc911\uad6d, \uc778\ub3c4 \ubc0f \uae30\ud0c0 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc(\uc11d\ud0c4, \uc11d\uc720, \ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4) \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0 \ub2e4\uc74c \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc8fc\uc694 \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \uacfc\uac70 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc9d1\uc57d\ub3c4 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc218\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ud558\uace0, 2019\ub144 11\uc6d4 IEA\uc758 \uc81c\uc548\uc815\ucc45 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(Stated Policies Scenario, STEPS)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc131\uc7a5 \ubc0f \uc804\uae30\ud654 \ud655\ub300\ub97c \uac00\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc704\uae30\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\ub454\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud588\ub2e4(\u201c\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uac00 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\u201d \ucc38\uc870).<\/p>\n


\n

\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uac00 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ud55c \ubc29\ubc95<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\uc774\ud558\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \ub300\uc720\ud589\uc774 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624, \uac00\uc815 \ubc0f \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\uc9c0\uc5ed\ubcc4 \ud5a5\ud6c4 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\uc740 2020\ub144 4\uc6d4 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 IMF \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uae30\uc900(Baseline: V\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5), 2020\ub144 \uac10\uc5fc \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(U\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5), \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 2020\ub144\uc758 \uac10\uc5fc \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\uc640 2021\ub144\uc758 \uac10\uc5fc \uc7ac\ubc1c\uc0dd\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(L\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5)\uc774\ub2e4. \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc774\uc804\uc758 GDP \uc608\uce21\uc740 IMF\uc758 2019\ub144 10\uc6d4 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c\ub2e4. 2020\ub144 4\uc6d4 IMF \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 2024\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\ubbc0\ub85c 2025\ub144 ~ 2030\ub144 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 2020\ub144 5\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc778\ud154\ub9ac\uc804\uc2a4 \uc720\ub2db(Economist Intelligence Unit)\uc774 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uad6d\uac00 \ubc0f \ubd80\ubb38 \ubcc4 \uc804\ubc18\uc801 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc18c\ube44<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\ub2e4\uc591\ud55c GDP \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(\uad6d\uac00 \ubc0f \ubd80\ubb38 \ubcc4 \ucd5c\uc885 \ubc0f 1\ucc28 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc18c\ube44)\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc911\uad6d, \ubbf8\uad6d, EU, \uc778\ub3c4 \ubc0f \uae30\ud0c0 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uc6b4\uc1a1, \ubc1c\uc804\/\uc5f4 \uc0dd\uc0b0, \uc0b0\uc5c5(\uc11d\uc720\ud654\ud559 \uacf5\uae09\uc6d0\ub8cc \ud3ec\ud568), \uac74\ubb3c, \uae30\ud0c0(\uc5ec\ud0c0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ud3ec\ud568)\uc758 5\uac1c \uacbd\uc81c \ubd80\ubb38\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uacfc\uac70 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc9d1\uc57d\ub3c4 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \ud1b5\ud55c \ubcf4\uc218\uc801 \ucd94\uc815\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

IMF\uc758 \uacfc\uac70 GDP \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 IEA\uc758 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud558\uc5ec \uc9c0\uc5ed \ubc0f \ubd80\ubb38 \ubcc4\ub85c \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud588\ub2e4. \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uacfc\uac70 \uc704\uae30(\uc608: 2000\ub144, 2008\ub144)\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\uc5ec, GDP \ucd94\uc138\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uacfc\uac70 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc9d1\uc57d\ub3c4 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc31 \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8(back-tests)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc798 \uc218\ud589\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

IEA\uc758 2020\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub9ac\ubdf0(Global Energy Review)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 U\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc704\uae30\uac00 2020\ub144 \uc218\uc694\ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \ud574\ub2f9 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 IMF\uc758 2020\ub144 \uac10\uc5fc \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ucc38\uc870 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub85c\uc11c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4. 2020\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc6a9\ud55c \uad6d\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub85c 2019\ub144 \uae30\uc900\uce58(base-year) \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uad6c\uc131\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ud574\ub2f9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uac00\uc6a9\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0\ub294 2018\ub144 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd94\uc815\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uac01 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\uac01 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 2019\ub144 11\uc6d4 IEA STEPS\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ube44 \ud654\uc11d \uae30\uc220 \ubc0f \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub9e4\uccb4(energy carrier)\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5(\uc8fc\ub85c \ud48d\ub825, \ud0dc\uc591\uad11, \uc804\uae30 \ubaa8\ube4c\ub9ac\ud2f0 \uad6c\ud604)\uc744 \uac00\uc815\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc704\uae30\uc5d0 \uc758\ud55c \uc218\uc694\ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc870\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \ubd80\ubb38 \ubcc4 \uac00\uc815\uc740 \uc774\ud558\uc640 \uac19\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc6b4\uc1a1<\/strong><\/h5>\n