{"id":2479,"date":"2020-07-01T10:38:55","date_gmt":"2020-07-01T01:38:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/?p=2479"},"modified":"2021-11-18T17:49:29","modified_gmt":"2021-11-18T08:49:29","slug":"have-we-passed-peak-demand-for-fossil-fuels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/have-we-passed-peak-demand-for-fossil-fuels\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc5c8\ub294\uac00?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \ub300\uc720\ud589\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc704\uc138\ub97c \ub5a8\uce58\uba74\uc11c \uc804\uc138\uacc4 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc740 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ub2e8\uae30\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc5b5\uc81c\ucc45\uc744 \ucde8\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc804\uc138\uacc4\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uc758 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \uc9c0\ub0ac\uc744 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac \uc704\uae30\uc758 \uadf8\ub298\uc5d0 \uac00\ub824\uc838 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub354 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uacaa\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ud63c\ub780\uc758 \ud55c \ud574<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \ub300\uc720\ud589\uc740 \uc138\uacc4\uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uac15\ud0c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uad6d\uc81c \ub178\ub3d9\uae30\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ub2e8 \uba87 \uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\uaddc\ubaa8\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc870 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc99d\ubc1c\ud588\uc73c\uba70 3\uc5b5 \uac1c \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \uc815\uaddc\uc9c1 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0ac\ub77c\uc84c\ub2e4. \uad6d\uc81c \ud1b5\ud654 \uae30\uae08\uc740 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc62c\ud574 \uc138\uacc4 GDP\uac00 3 ~ 6% \ud558\ub77d\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uce21\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 2008\ub144 ~ 2009\ub144 \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30 \ub54c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d 2 ~ 4\ubc30 \ud070 \uac10\uc18c\ud3ed\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubd80\ubb38 \ubcc4\ub85c \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc0c1\uc774\ud55c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uacbd\ud5d8\ud588\ub2e4(\ub3c4\ud45c 1 \ucc38\uc870).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2480\" src=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1094\" height=\"546\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_1.png 1094w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_1-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_1-1024x511.png 1024w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_1-768x383.png 768w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_1-696x347.png 696w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_1-1068x533.png 1068w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_1-842x420.png 842w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1094px) 100vw, 1094px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n\uc11d\uc720 \uc218\uc694\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \ud070 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\uc558\ub2e4. 3\uc6d4\uacfc 4\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc804\uc138\uacc4 \ud56d\uacf5\uc5ec\ud589 \uac10\uc18c, \uc138\uacc4\ubb34\uc5ed \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc81c\ud55c\uc870\uce58\ub85c \ub9ce\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub3d9\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub428\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc11d\uc720 \uc218\uc694\uac00 20% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70 \uc774\ub294 \ud558\ub8e8 2\ucc9c\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud558\ub294 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uacfc\uc789\uacf5\uae09\uc774 OPEC\uacfc \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\uc758 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9 \ud560\ub2f9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ub354 \uc2ec\uac01\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uae09\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d \ub0b4 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4\uac00 \ub418\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc11d\ud0c4 \uc218\uc694\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uacbd\ud5d8\ud588\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uba74\uc11c \ub9ce\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c \uc804\ub825\uc18c\ube44\uac00 \uac10\uc18c\ud568\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc11d\ud0c4\ud654\ub825\ubc1c\uc804\uc18c\uc758 \uac00\ub3d9\uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \ub2e8\ucd95\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc804\ub825\ub3c4\ub9e4\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc804\ub825\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub0b4 \ub2e4\uc218 \ubc1c\uc804\uc0ac\uc5c5\uc790 \ub9c8\uc9c4\uc774 \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4 \uc218\uc694\ub3c4 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uae34 \ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c GDP\uc758 \uc804\ubc18\uc801 \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \uc5f0\uacc4\ub41c \uac83\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc5ed\ub9c8\ub2e4 \uc815\ub3c4\uc758 \ucc28\uc774\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \uc804\ub825 \ubc0f \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b9\ud788 \uc218\uc694 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uad00\ucc30\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 2019\ub144 ~ 2020\ub144 \uaca8\uc6b8\uc774 \uc628\ud654\ud588\ub358 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud588\uc744 \ub54c \uac74\ubb3c \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uc18c\ube44\ub294 \uc880 \ub354 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc640 \ub2ec\ub9ac \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc740 \uacc4\uc18d \uc99d\uac00 \uc911\uc774\ub2e4. \ud48d\ub825 \ubc0f \ud0dc\uc591\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc758 \ud655\ub300 \ud3ed\uc740 \uc704\uae30 \uc774\uc804\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uce58\uc5d0\ub294 \ubabb \ubbf8\uce58\uc9c0\ub9cc \uad6d\uc81c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uae30\uad6c\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \uc804\uc138\uacc4 \ud48d\ub825 \ubc0f \ud0dc\uc591\uad11 \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \uac01\uac01 10% \ubc0f 15% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub294 \ud55c\uacc4 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \uac70\uc758 0\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud558\ub294 \uc758\ubb34 \ubc1c\uc804\uc6d0\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\uc740 \uae30\uc874 \ubc1c\uc804\uc0ac\uc5c5\uc790\ub97c \ub354\uc6b1 \uc555\ubc15\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud328\ud134\uc740 \ubbf8\ub798 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc5ed\ud559\uc5d0 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce5c\ub2e4. \uba87 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uac8c \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\ud68c\ubcf5\uc740 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ud655\ub300\ud558\uac8c \ub418\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc138\uacc4\uacbd\uc81c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc9d1\uc57d\ub3c4\uc758 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc778 \uac10\uc18c\ub294 \uacc4\uc18d\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4(\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc778 \ud6a8\uc728\uc131 \uac1c\uc120\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574). \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc6d0\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc131\uc7a5\uacfc \uc6b4\uc1a1\ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uc804\uae30\ud654 \ucd94\uc138\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uc758 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \uc138\uacc4 GDP\ud68c\ubcf5\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub4a4\uccd0\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc694\uc778\uc758 \uc9c4\ud589\uc18d\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc218\uc694 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc758 \uc815\ub3c4\uac00 \uacb0\uc815\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uc758 \uc815\uc810\uc740 \uc9c0\ub098\uac04 \uac83\uc77c\uae4c?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\uc804\uc138\uacc4 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \ubd09\uc1c4\uc870\uce58\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\uba74\uc11c \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \ub300\uc720\ud589\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ud53c\ud574\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc624\ub798 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420\uc9c0\ub294 \uc544\uc9c1 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud558\ub2e4. IMF\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8(baseline) \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 2021\ub144 \uc138\uacc4 GDP\uac00 2019\ub144 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4\uc11c\ub294 V\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud68c\ubcf5\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc624\ub79c \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uac78\ub9ac\ub294 U\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc744 \uacbd\uace0\ud558\ub294 \ubaa9\uc18c\ub9ac\uac00 \uafb8\uc900\ud788 \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud6c4\uc790\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ubd80\uc815\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. IMF\uc758 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758(worst-case) \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc778 L\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5 \ud558\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud53c\ud574\uac00 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub354 \ud074 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4(\ub3c4\ud45c 2 \ucc38\uc870).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2481\" src=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1092\" height=\"574\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_2.png 1092w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_2-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_2-1024x538.png 1024w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_2-768x404.png 768w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_2-696x366.png 696w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_2-1068x561.png 1068w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_2-799x420.png 799w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1092px) 100vw, 1092px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\uadf8 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 2020\ub144 4\uc6d4 IMF\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubbf8\uad6d, \uc720\ub7fd, \uc911\uad6d, \uc778\ub3c4 \ubc0f \uae30\ud0c0 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc(\uc11d\ud0c4, \uc11d\uc720, \ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4) \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0 \ub2e4\uc74c \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc8fc\uc694 \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \uacfc\uac70 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc9d1\uc57d\ub3c4 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc218\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ud558\uace0, 2019\ub144 11\uc6d4 IEA\uc758 \uc81c\uc548\uc815\ucc45 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(Stated Policies Scenario, STEPS)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc131\uc7a5 \ubc0f \uc804\uae30\ud654 \ud655\ub300\ub97c \uac00\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc704\uae30\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\ub454\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud588\ub2e4(\u201c\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uac00 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\u201d \ucc38\uc870).<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><strong>\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uac00 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ud55c \ubc29\ubc95<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ud558\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \ub300\uc720\ud589\uc774 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624, \uac00\uc815 \ubc0f \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\uc9c0\uc5ed\ubcc4 \ud5a5\ud6c4 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\uc740 2020\ub144 4\uc6d4 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 IMF \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uae30\uc900(Baseline: V\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5), 2020\ub144 \uac10\uc5fc \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(U\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5), \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 2020\ub144\uc758 \uac10\uc5fc \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\uc640 2021\ub144\uc758 \uac10\uc5fc \uc7ac\ubc1c\uc0dd\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(L\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5)\uc774\ub2e4. \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc774\uc804\uc758 GDP \uc608\uce21\uc740 IMF\uc758 2019\ub144 10\uc6d4 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c\ub2e4. 2020\ub144 4\uc6d4 IMF \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 2024\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\ubbc0\ub85c 2025\ub144 ~ 2030\ub144 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 2020\ub144 5\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc778\ud154\ub9ac\uc804\uc2a4 \uc720\ub2db(Economist Intelligence Unit)\uc774 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\uad6d\uac00 \ubc0f \ubd80\ubb38 \ubcc4 \uc804\ubc18\uc801 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc18c\ube44<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\ub2e4\uc591\ud55c GDP \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(\uad6d\uac00 \ubc0f \ubd80\ubb38 \ubcc4 \ucd5c\uc885 \ubc0f 1\ucc28 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc18c\ube44)\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc911\uad6d, \ubbf8\uad6d, EU, \uc778\ub3c4 \ubc0f \uae30\ud0c0 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uc6b4\uc1a1, \ubc1c\uc804\/\uc5f4 \uc0dd\uc0b0, \uc0b0\uc5c5(\uc11d\uc720\ud654\ud559 \uacf5\uae09\uc6d0\ub8cc \ud3ec\ud568), \uac74\ubb3c, \uae30\ud0c0(\uc5ec\ud0c0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ud3ec\ud568)\uc758 5\uac1c \uacbd\uc81c \ubd80\ubb38\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uacfc\uac70 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc9d1\uc57d\ub3c4 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \ud1b5\ud55c \ubcf4\uc218\uc801 \ucd94\uc815\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>IMF\uc758 \uacfc\uac70 GDP \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 IEA\uc758 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud558\uc5ec \uc9c0\uc5ed \ubc0f \ubd80\ubb38 \ubcc4\ub85c \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud588\ub2e4. \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uacfc\uac70 \uc704\uae30(\uc608: 2000\ub144, 2008\ub144)\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\uc5ec, GDP \ucd94\uc138\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uacfc\uac70 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc9d1\uc57d\ub3c4 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc31 \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8(back-tests)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc798 \uc218\ud589\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>IEA\uc758 2020\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub9ac\ubdf0(Global Energy Review)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 U\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc704\uae30\uac00 2020\ub144 \uc218\uc694\ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \ud574\ub2f9 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 IMF\uc758 2020\ub144 \uac10\uc5fc \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ucc38\uc870 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub85c\uc11c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4. 2020\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc6a9\ud55c \uad6d\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub85c 2019\ub144 \uae30\uc900\uce58(base-year) \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uad6c\uc131\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ud574\ub2f9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uac00\uc6a9\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0\ub294 2018\ub144 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd94\uc815\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\uac01 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\uac01 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 2019\ub144 11\uc6d4 IEA STEPS\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ube44 \ud654\uc11d \uae30\uc220 \ubc0f \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub9e4\uccb4(energy carrier)\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5(\uc8fc\ub85c \ud48d\ub825, \ud0dc\uc591\uad11, \uc804\uae30 \ubaa8\ube4c\ub9ac\ud2f0 \uad6c\ud604)\uc744 \uac00\uc815\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc704\uae30\uc5d0 \uc758\ud55c \uc218\uc694\ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc870\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \ubd80\ubb38 \ubcc4 \uac00\uc815\uc740 \uc774\ud558\uc640 \uac19\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>\uc6b4\uc1a1<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li>\ubaa8\ub4e0 \uae30\uc220\uacfc \uc5f0\ub8cc, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc561\uccb4\uc5f0\ub8cc(\ud654\uc11d\/\ubc14\uc774\uc624 \uc5f0\ub8cc), \uc561\ud654\ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4 \ubc0f \uc804\uae30\ub294 GDP \uc131\uc7a5 \uae30\ubc18 \uc6b4\uc1a1\ud65c\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li>\ub3c4\ub85c \uc6b4\uc1a1 \uae30\uc220\uc758 \uad6c\uc131\ubcc0\ud654\ub294 IEA STEPS \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ub530\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \uc804\uae30 \ubaa8\ube4c\ub9ac\ud2f0\ub294 2030\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694\uc758 \uc57d 1%\ub97c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\uac8c \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li>\ud56d\uacf5 \ubc0f \ud574\uc6b4 \ubd84\uc57c\uc758 \uad6d\uc81c \ubc99\ucee4\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\ub294 GDP\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ube44\ub840\ud558\uc5ec \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>\ubc1c\uc804\/\uc5f4 \uc0dd\uc0b0<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li>2020\ub144 ~ 2021\ub144 \ud48d\ub825 \ubc0f \ud0dc\uc591\uad11 \ub3c4\uc785\uc774 IEA STEPS \uc608\uce21 \ub300\ube44 50% \ub454\ud654\ub41c \ud6c4, 2024\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 IEA STEPS\uac00 \uc608\uce21\ud55c \ub3c4\uc785 \uc218\uc900(\uc5f0\uac04 \uc57d 170GW)\uc73c\ub85c \uc810\ucc28 \ud68c\ubcf5\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li>\uc218\ub825 \ubc0f \uc6d0\uc790\ub825\ubc1c\uc804\uc740 2030\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 IEA STEPS\uc608\uce21\uc744 \ub530\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li>\uc11d\ud0c4, \uac00\uc2a4 \ubc0f \uc11d\uc720\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \ubc1c\uc804\uc740 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uac10\uc18c\ud558\uace0 \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ubc1c\uc804\uc6a9\ub7c9\uc774 \uc99d\uac00\ud568\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubc1c\uc804\uc6d0 \uad6c\uc131\uc5d0\uc11c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ube44\uc911\uc774 \uc791\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc11d\ud0c4, \uac00\uc2a4 \ubc0f \uc11d\uc720\uc758 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801 \ube44\uc911\uc740 2019\ub144 \uc11d\ud0c4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc2a4\ub85c \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc804\ud658\uc774 \uc77c\uc5b4\ub09c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud558\uace0\ub294 IEA STEPS\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uce21\ud55c \ubc14\uc640 \uac19\uc774 \uacb0\uc815\ub420 \uac83\uc774\uba70, \uc11d\ud0c4\uc218\uc694\ub294 2030\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc18\ub4f1\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>\uc0b0\uc5c5 (\uc11d\uc720\ud654\ud559 \uacf5\uae09\uc6d0\ub8cc \ud3ec\ud568)<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li>2030 \ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub9e4\uccb4(energy carrier)\uc758 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801 \uc810\uc720\uc728\uc740 GDP \uc131\uc7a5 \uc800\uc870\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc218\uc694\ub294 \ub0ae\uc9c0\ub9cc IEA STEPS\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ub530\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>\uac74\ubb3c<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li>\uc808\ub300\uc801\uc778 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c 20\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \uc120\ud615\uc801 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \uc9c0\uc18d\ud560 \uac83\uc774\uba70 IEA STEPS\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud558\uc5ec \ubcf4\uc815 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li>\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub9e4\uccb4\uc758 \uad6c\uc131\ube44\uc911\uc740 IEA STEPS\uc758 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ub530\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>\uc0c1\uc774\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uacfc \uc0c1\ud488\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc0c1\uc774\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2482\" src=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"821\" height=\"517\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_3.png 821w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_3-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_3-768x484.png 768w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_3-696x438.png 696w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_3-667x420.png 667w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 821px) 100vw, 821px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>IMF\uc758 V\uc790\ud615 \ud68c\ubcf5 \uc608\uce21\uc774 \uc2e4\ud604\ub41c\ub2e4\uba74 \uc804\uc138\uacc4 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\ub294 2022\ub144\uc5d0 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c GDP \ud68c\ubcf5 \ud6c4 \ubd88\uacfc \uba87 \uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc5d0 2019\ub144 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4 \ud68c\ubcf5\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4(\ub3c4\ud45c 3 \ucc38\uc870). \uc774\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 \uacbd\uc81c\uc704\uae30 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc18\ub4f1\ud588\ub358 \uc0c1\ud669\uacfc \uc77c\uce58\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2483\" src=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1092\" height=\"549\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_4.png 1092w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_4-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_4-1024x515.png 1024w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_4-768x386.png 768w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_4-696x350.png 696w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_4-1068x537.png 1068w, https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/fosselfuels_4-835x420.png 835w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1092px) 100vw, 1092px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 U\uc790\ud615 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(2020\ub144 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc2ec\ud654, 2022\ub144 GDP \ud68c\ubcf5, \uadf8 \uc774\ud6c4 \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5\uc138 \ud68c\ubcf5)\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc5d0 \ud6e8\uc52c \uc624\ub79c \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc18c\uc694\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub978 \uc694\uc778\uc744 \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud558\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \ucda9\ubd84\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc218\uc694\ub294 2020\ub144\ub300 \ud6c4\ubc18\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0\ub294 2019\ub144 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud68c\ubcf5\ub418\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub9c8\uc800\ub3c4 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc804\ud658\uc774 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud558\uba74 \uacb0\ucf54 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \uc77c\uc5b4\ub098\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. L\uc790\ud615 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uac00 \uc2e4\ud604\ub41c\ub2e4\uba74 2020\ub144\ub300\uc5d0\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ud68c\ubcf5\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc5f0\ub8cc\uac00 \ub611\uac19\uc774 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc704\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc11d\ud0c4 \uc218\uc694\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc815\uccb4\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc804\ub825 \uc218\uc694 \uc99d\uac00\uc640 \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc758 \ubc1c\uc804\uc6a9\ub7c9 \uc99d\uac00\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc11d\ud0c4 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc704\uae30 \uc774\uc804 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud68c\ubcf5\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \uac70\uc758 \uc5c6\ub2e4. \uc6b4\uc1a1 \ubc0f \uc5ec\ud589 \ubd80\ubb38 \ub454\ud654\ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ucc28\ub7c9\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ud6a8\uc728\uc131 \uac1c\uc120\uc774 \uc11d\uc720 \uc218\uc694\ub97c \uc5b5\uc81c\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4(\ud56d\uacf5\ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc704\uae30 \uc911 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube60\ub978 \ud56d\uacf5\uae30 \ud1f4\uc5ed\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc218\uc694 \uc5b5\uc81c \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c). \ub2e4\ub978 \ud55c\ud3b8\uc73c\ub85c, \uc804\uae30\ud654 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \ud06c\uac8c \ub290\ub824\uc9d0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc804\ud658 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc11d\uc720 \uc218\uc694 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc758 \uc5ec\ubd80\uc640 \ud68c\ubcf5 \uc815\ub3c4\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc6b4\uc1a1\ubd80\ubb38 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ube68\ub9ac \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824\uc788\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \uac00\uc2a4 \uc218\uc694\ub294 \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\ub97c \uac70\uc758 \ud68c\ubcf5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc6b0\uc120, \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uacfc \uc815\ubd80\uc815\ucc45\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uba87\uba87 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uc804\ub825 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uc11d\ud0c4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc2a4\ub85c\uc758 \uc804\ud658\uc774 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c, \uac74\ubb3c \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uc218\uc694\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\ub454\ud654 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ud070 \ud0c4\ub825\uc131\uc744 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc218\uc694 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub2e4\ub974\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c\ub2e4. \uc120\uc9c4\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc5f0\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc815\uccb4\ub418\uac70\ub098 \uac10\uc18c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc704\uae30\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud588\ub2e4. \uc911\uad6d\uacfc \uc778\ub3c4 \ub4f1 \uc2e0\ud765 \uacbd\uc81c\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ud68c\ubcf5 \ubc0f \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub354 \ub192\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc704\uae30 \uc774\uc804\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uce58\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud55c \uc218\uc694\uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \uc77c\uc5b4\ub0a0 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc77c \ubfd0\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc5c8\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc138\uacc4\uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc704\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ud68c\ubcf5\ub418\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \ud0c4\uc18c\ubc30\ucd9c\ub7c9 \uc800\uac10\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ub178\ub825\uc774 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74 2019\ub144 \uc138\uacc4 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc815\uc810\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uba87 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uac00 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uccab\uc9f8, \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ud22c\uc790\uc5ec\ub825 \ud558\ub77d\uc73c\ub85c \ud6a8\uc728\uc131 \uc99d\uac00\uc138\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0, \uc804\uae30\ucc28 \ubc0f \uae30\ud0c0 \uc800\ud0c4\uc18c \uae30\uc220\uc758 \ud655\uc0b0\uc774 \ub290\ub824\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc804\ub840 \uc5c6\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc804\uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc800\ud0c4\uc18c \ud504\ub85c\uc81d\ud2b8\uc5d0 \uc5ed\ud48d\uc744 \uc77c\uc73c\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub978 \ud55c\ud3b8\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc7ac\uc0dd\uac00\ub2a5 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba70, \uc77c\ubd80 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud48d\ub825 \ubc0f \ud0dc\uc591\uad11 \ud504\ub85c\uc81d\ud2b8 \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \uae30\uc874 \uc11d\ud0c4 \ubc1c\uc804\uc18c \ube44\uc6a9\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6b4\uc1a1 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \uc81c\ud55c\uc870\uce58\uac00 \ucd9c\uc7a5 \ubc0f \uc7a5\uac70\ub9ac \uc5ec\ud589\uc5d0\uc11c \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \ud589\ub3d9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uc720\ubc1c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud558\ub2e4. \uba87\uba87 \uad6d\uac00\ub294 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uacbd\uae30\ubd80\uc591 \uc790\uae08\uacfc \ud0c4\uc18c \uc758\uc874\ub3c4 \ucd95\uc18c\ub97c \uacb0\ud569\ud55c \ub179\uc0c9 \ud68c\ubcf5 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc744 \ub3c4\uc785\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc720\ub7fd\uc5f0\ud569\uc758 \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc778 \uadf8\ub9b0 \ub51c(Green Deal)\uc740 \uc800\ud0c4\uc18c \uae30\uc220\uc758 \ub3c4\uc785\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, EU \uc774\uc678\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\ub9cc\uc57d\uc758 \uc0c1\ud669<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\uc624\ub298\ub0a0 \ub31c\uc218\uc758 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uae30\ubc18 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uae30\uc5c5\uc740 \uc804\ub840 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc640 \uac00\uaca9 \ucda9\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uace0\ud1b5 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \ub354 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc0b0\uc5c5\ud654 \uc774\ub798\ub85c \uc131\uc7a5\ud574 \uc628 \uc0b0\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \uac11\uc790\uae30 \uc815\uccb4\ub418\uac70\ub098 \uc1e0\ud1f4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc218\uc694 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uacfc \uc0c1\ud488\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2e4\ub974\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc(\uac00\uc2a4 \uc218\uc694\ub294 \uacc4\uc18d \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc74c), \ubb3c\ub7c9\uacfc \uac00\uaca9 \ucd94\uc774\uac00 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ud55c\ub2e4 \ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \ub9ce\uc740 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc775 \ub9c8\uc9c4 \uc555\ubc15\uc744 \ubc1b\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc9c4\ud589\uc0c1\ud669\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uac00\uce58\ud3c9\uac00\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc720\ub7fd \uc720\ud2f8\ub9ac\ud2f0 \ubd80\ubb38\uc740 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uadf9\uc801\uc778 \uc608\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. 2000\ub144\ub300 \ucd08 \ud48d\ub825\uacfc \ud0dc\uc591\uad11 \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uc5c8\uc744 \ub54c \uae30\uc874 \ubc1c\uc804\uc0ac\uc5c5\uc790\uc758 \ucd08\uae30 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc810\uc720\uc728 \uc190\uc2e4\uc740 \ubbf8\ubbf8\ud588\ub2e4. \uc11d\ud0c4\uc740 \uc624\ub298\ub0a0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc720\ub7fd \uad6d\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\uc18c\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc801\uc5b4\ub3c4 \ud5a5\ud6c4 10\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uacc4\uc18d \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc9c4\ud589\uc911\uc778 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uae68\ub2eb\uac8c \ub41c \ud6c4 \uc720\ud2f8\ub9ac\ud2f0 \uc5c5\uccb4\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uac00\uce58\uac00 \ubd88\uacfc \uba87 \ub144 \uc548\uc5d0 \ud06c\uac8c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4(\ub3c4\ud45c 4 \ucc38\uc870). \uc720\ud2f8\ub9ac\ud2f0 \uc5c5\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc790\uc2e0\ub4e4\uc758 \uc0ac\uc5c5\ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc804\ud658\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uc778\uc815\ud55c \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc804\ud658\uc5d0 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \ub2a5\ub825\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc57d\ud654\ub41c \ud6c4\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \ub05d\ub0a0 \uac83\uc740 \ud56d\uc0c1 \uc608\uce21\ub418\uc5b4 \uc654\uc9c0\ub9cc \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc704\uae30\ub294 10\ub144 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc774\ub97c \uc55e\ub2f9\uae38 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 2019\ub144\uc5d0 \uc774\ubbf8 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc5c8\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uac00 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc774\ub77c\uba74 \ub9ce\uc740 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc785\uc9c0\uc640 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ud654\uc2dc\ucf1c \uae30\uc874 \uc0ac\uc5c5\ubaa8\ub378\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc800\ud0c4\uc18c \uc804\ud658\uc758 \ud544\uc694\uc131\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uba70, \ub610\ud55c \uc5c5\uacc4 \ub0b4 \uae30\uc5c5\ud1b5\ud569\uc744 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \uc2e0\uc18d\ud558\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0, \uae30\uc874 \ud22c\uc790 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uba70, \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \ub9e4\uc7a5\ub7c9\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub41c \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \ud3c9\uac00\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc640 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uac00\uaca9\ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud0c4\ub825\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ube44\uc6a9\uc808\uac10\uc744 \uc900\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud558\uba70, \ub610\ud55c \ube44\uc988\ub2c8\uc2a4 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \ud601\uc2e0\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\uacbd\ud558\uace0 \uad81\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc5d0\ucffc\ud2f0 \uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac(equity story)\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc4f0\ub824\ub294 \ub178\ub825\uc744 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uae30\ud6c4\ubcc0\ud654\uc640\uc758 \uc2f8\uc6c0\uc5d0\uc11c, \ud654\uc11d\uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc548\uc2ec\ud560 \uc218\ub294 \uc5c6\ub2e4. \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \ud0c4\uc18c\ubc30\ucd9c\ub7c9\uc740 1.5\u00b0C \ubaa9\ud45c\ub294 \ubb3c\ub860, \ud30c\ub9ac \uae30\ud6c4\ud611\uc57d\uc758 2\u00b0C \ubaa9\ud45c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd80\ud569\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uac00\uaca9\ud558\ub77d\uc740 \uc800\ud0c4\uc18c \uc804\ud658\uc744 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uae30\uc5c5\uacfc \uc815\ubd80\uc5d0 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ub3c4\uc804\uacfc\uc81c\ub97c \uc57c\uae30\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bcg.com\/publications\/2020\/have-we-passed-peak-demand-for-fossil-fuels.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\uc6d0\ubb38(\uc601\uc5b4) \ubcf4\ub7ec\uac00\uae30<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"\/newsletter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2753\" src=\"http:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/BCG\ub274\uc2a4\ub808\ud130\uad6c\ub3c5\ud558\uae30\ucd08\ub85d\ubc30\uacbd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"180\" height=\"50\" title=\"\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \ub300\uc720\ud589\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc704\uc138\ub97c \ub5a8\uce58\uba74\uc11c \uc804\uc138\uacc4 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc740 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ub2e8\uae30\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc5b5\uc81c\ucc45\uc744 \ucde8\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc804\uc138\uacc4\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc218\uc694\uc758 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \uc9c0\ub0ac\uc744 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac \uc704\uae30\uc758 \uadf8\ub298\uc5d0 \uac00\ub824\uc838 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub354 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2101,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,47],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2479","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ig-en","8":"category-covid19"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2479\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2101"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}