{"id":9097,"date":"2024-08-29T14:42:37","date_gmt":"2024-08-29T05:42:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/?p=9097"},"modified":"2024-08-30T00:36:32","modified_gmt":"2024-08-29T15:36:32","slug":"long-term-forecast-for-quantum-computing-still-looks-bright","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bcgblog.kr\/long-term-forecast-for-quantum-computing-still-looks-bright\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubc1d\uc740 \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc804\ub9dd"},"content":{"rendered":"

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2021\ub144 BCG\uc758 \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc804\ub9dd<\/a> \ubc1c\uac04 \ud6c4, \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub9ce\uc740 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uae30\uc220\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc778 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc758 \ub300\uc548\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 \ubabb\ud55c \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\ubcf4\ud558\uc5ec, \uc804\uccb4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uae4c\uc9c4 \uc544\ub2c8\uc5b4\ub3c4 \uadf8 \ubc1c\uc804\uc758 \uada4\uc801\uc774 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc84c\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ubd84\uc11d\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uc2dc\uae30\uac00 \ub3c4\ub798\ud55c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

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\uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc758 \ud604\uc7ac\uc640 \uadf8 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc131<\/strong><\/h3>\n

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\uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc774 \ub9c8\uce68\ub0b4 \ud601\uc2e0\uc801\uc778 \uc7a0\uc7ac\ub825\uc744 \uc2e4\ud604\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub2f5\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc5ec\ub7ec \ub3c4\uc804 \uacfc\uc81c\uac00 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ub3c4 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc774\ub2e4. \uc624\ub298\ub0a0 \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc740 \uc0c1\uc5c5\uc801 \uc774\uc6a9 \ub610\ub294 \uacfc\ud559\uc801 \uc751\uc6a9\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4\uc11c \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc778 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \uac00\uc2dc\uc801\uc778 \uc774\uc810\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubb3c\ub860 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5b8\uc820\uac00 \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc774 \uc0c1\uc5c5\uc801\uc774\ub098 \uacfc\ud559\uc801\uc778 \ubb38\uc81c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uae30\uc874\uc758 \ub300\uc548\uc744 \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub118\ub294 \ud574\uacb0\ucc45\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ub370 \ub3d9\uc758\ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ud574\ub2f9 \uc2e0\uae30\uc220\uc774 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc774\uc810\uc744 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8\ub85c \uc785\uc99d\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc544\uc9c1 \uc77c\uc815 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c \uc591\uc790 \uc5f0\uc0b0\uc758 \uc815\ud655\ub3c4\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \ucda9\uc2e4\ub3c4(Fidelity)\ub294 \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc758 \ub300\ub300\uc801\uc778 \ub3c4\uc785\uc5d0 \uac78\ub9bc\ub3cc\uc774 \ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8, \uae30\uc874 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc740 \ud558\ub4dc\uc6e8\uc5b4(GPU \ub4f1), \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998, \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI) \ub77c\uc774\ube0c\ub7ec\ub9ac \ubc0f \ud504\ub808\uc784\uc6cc\ud06c \ub4f1\uc758 \uace0\ub3c4\ud654\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc1c\uc804\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubb3c\ub860 \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\ub3c4 \ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305 \uc131\ub2a5\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\ud45c\uc778 \uc591\uc790 \ud68c\ub85c\uc758 \ubb3c\ub9ac\uc801 \ud050\ube44\ud2b8 \uc218\ub294 2018\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 1~2\ub144\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ub450 \ubc30\uc529 \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uba70, \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uc9c4\ubcf4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ucd94\uc138\ub294 \ucd5c\uc18c \ud5a5\ud6c4 3~5\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc804\uccb4\uc801\uc778 \uae30\uc220 \ud22c\uc790\uc561\uc774 50% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0, \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305 \ubd84\uc57c\ub294 2023\ub144 \ubca4\ucc98 \uce90\ud53c\ud138\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 12\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uc720\uce58\ud558\uba70 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \uc785\uc99d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc804 \uc138\uacc4\uc758 \uc815\ubd80 \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305 \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\uc11c\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc911\uad6d \ub4f1\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud574, \uac01\uad6d \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc774 \uad6d\uac00 \uc548\ubcf4\uc640 \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc911\ucd94\uc801 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud558\uac8c \ub420 \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \ub9c9\ub300\ud55c \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacf5\uacf5 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 3~5\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 100\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc124 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc591\uc790 \uae30\uc220\uc758 \ud655\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uae30\ud2c0\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ubc88 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc704\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc0c1\ubc18\ub41c \uc804\uac1c \ud604\ud669\uc744 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uace0, \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ub3c4\uc804 \uacfc\uc81c\uc640 \uae09\uc18d\ud55c \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5a0\ud55c \uacb0\ud569\uc73c\ub85c \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc758 \uc7a0\uc7ac\ub825\uc744 \ubc1c\ud718\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uc9c0 \uadf8 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uace0\uc790 \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

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NISQ <\/strong>\uc2dc\ub300\uc758 \uac00\uce58 \ucc3d\ucd9c \uacfc\uc81c<\/strong><\/h3>\n

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\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc138 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \uc131\uc219\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c 3\ub144 \uc804\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc544\uc9c1\ub3c4 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2030\ub144 \uc774\uc804\uae4c\uc9c0\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub418\ub294 \u2018\ub178\uc774\uc988\uac00 \uc788\ub294 \uc911\uac04 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uc591\uc790(Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum, \uc774\ud558 NISQ)\u2019 \ub2e8\uacc4, 2030\ub144\ubd80\ud130 2040\ub144 \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \u2018\uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc591\uc790 \uc6b0\uc704(Broad Quantum Advantage)\u2019 \ub2e8\uacc4, 2040\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \u2018\ubcf8\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \ub0b4\uacb0\ud568\uc131(Full-Scale Fault Tolerance)\u2019 \ub2e8\uacc4\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c\ub2e4. (\ubcf4\uae30 1 \ucc38\uc870)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\ub610\ud55c, 2040\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc591\uc790 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc774 4,500\uc5b5~8,500\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uac00\uce58\ub97c \ucc3d\ucd9c\ud558\uc5ec, \ud558\ub4dc\uc6e8\uc5b4 \ubc0f \uc18c\ud504\ud2b8\uc6e8\uc5b4 \uacf5\uae09\uc5c5\uccb4\ub4e4\uc5d0 900\uc5b5~1,700\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud655\uc2e0\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uace0\uc131\ub2a5 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130 \uacf5\uae09\uc5c5\uccb4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 2040\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 1,250\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ube44\uc988\ub2c8\uc2a4 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ud50c\ub7ab\ud3fc, \u2018\uc2a4\ud0dc\ud2f0\uc2a4\ud0c0(Statista)\u2019\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc\ub3c4 \uc77c\uce58\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc NISQ \uc2dc\ub300\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801 \uac00\uce58 \ucc3d\ucd9c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac00\uc815\uc740 \ub2e4\uc18c \ub099\uad00\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc774\ub294 \uc218\uc815\ub420 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc77c\ubd80 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc740 \uc591\uc790 \uae30\uc220\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc811\uadfc \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \uc7ac\uace0\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ucd08\uae30 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \ud575\uc2ec \uae30\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ub9c8\ub828\ub410\uc73c\uba70, \uc774 \uae30\uc900\ub4e4\uc740 \ud558\ub4dc\uc6e8\uc5b4\uc640 \uc18c\ud504\ud2b8\uc6e8\uc5b4\uc758 \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \ud55c \uc9c0\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9cc\ub098 \uc804\ud1b5 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud305\uc758 \uc131\ub2a5\uc744 \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub118\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n